Sterling breaks out of August negative trend

Ironically we got the QE and sterling rose. Strange thing that more money means a higher price but anyway the dollar is falling in general.

We have now in action the breakout scenario, its now not following the August decline. 

If it can hold above 1.55 well enough and not decline as was expected then a recovery in sterling worth becomes possible and a reversal of the loss in value since August, etc

Upside targets 1.563 1.59





[Cable surged three and a half cents in 24 hours, which is abnormal. Conversely that makes this pullback & negative monday healthy, but it has to be relatively positive on a week view still ]

Predictable Dow

Have markets become this easy or will see a more dramatic crash or boom now as we break range.    Unfortunately I dont know but going up here is what I see as unexpected now

GoLD new high

Space left in golds price still, 1610 maybe  

Infosys in a downward channel

The recent high peaked at both the 200 day moving average and also top of a downward channel for this year

5767 looks a critical area to hold and determine future behaviour

CREE Support line active chart

Support at 31.31 and Volume support around 25 I think

Cadogan appears bullish still

Its pulling back to its old trend.   Its met and risen from 200 day average and nothing in volume or news appears to warn me of failure occurring through the previous rises 

But anything is possible!

Sunkar at longer term trend

Much weakness in this price will not easily defer to any longer term strength

EMED chart shows lower volume partners selling

 Looking at EMED chart again and noticed the recent fall in price has been on lower volume then its rise which makes it unlikely to hold here long term in theory

The red line is steeper then the blue, the third graph there is a combination of the two trying to show underlying strength or weakness - hence its not fallen like the price


A smaller number of sellers can drop the price disproportionately if they demand their money back right now. However in time this 'damage' should be easier to fix then is apparent

Rockhoppers trend to rise still intact?

Im looking at the 225 area as a 61% retracement of the larger move.  200 area is also of higher volume and as above chart shows this price fits with a previous positive trend (slight)

Euro strengthens vs Sterling, is this a breakout?

First Solar hits top of ascending channel

FSLR  looks bullish but needs to beat 156.50 confidently to break range of last couple years

 If todays low does not hold then 141.31 & 200dma reasonable risk/reward for a swing trade ?

Caza disappoints but remains positive long term

Chart shows price at 200 day average with a positive trend possibly still intact

Nikkei retraces its gains since breaking a multi year downtrend

The breakout seen here in Nov 2010 traces back to the highs of 2008 and beyond for Japanese stocks.  As such, if we can stay above this downtrend line Im still quite bullish for a continued recovery in such an already lowly rated index. 

The currency as the other half of this equation should prove much weaker going forward and longer term

Wall Street index comes to a cross roads

This is a daily chart for wall street stocks.  I m expecting a rise in the DOW30 index as it meets a long term support and also a trend up.   Also the moving averages have a positive gradient to them.

The grim news occurring globally makes a selloff obvious but the chart trend shows its more then possible a gain is registered for this week especially as dollar index worth continues lower

Chart talk through - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYcc3baY2og

US Dollar weak

Daily 

4 hour bar chart

Troubled BP shows itself to still be within an uptrend

About midway in an ascending channel or a 61% recovery of its 2010 highs

Rockhopper takes a fall onto firm ground ?

Cluff Gold breaks out despite troubles in Cote d'Ivoire

See article below, chart defies news
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bank-run-ivory-coast

Apple is on an elevator with few pauses

Right now it appears at near its more optimistic pricing however $380 seems feasible still and I have read forward price earnings is still low teens 

Cisco loses 10% after hours on mild results, continuing a negative trend

It may yet prove to be in a long term downtrend.  Shown just prior to results here it could be seen at the top of a channel.  

After hours puts it below the 200 day average shown in orange here.

Volume at $22 is extremely high making this selloff inline and not an erratic move.  This point will continue to require large momentum to pass in future. 

  19 looks to be first support with slightly higher volume there or as low as 18.   At those prices I think value hunters might move in but it seems likely to be weak for some time yet unless positive news outside results can occur perhaps

EuroDollar positive bias

Monday 7th lows was a 50% retracement of 2009 highs for the Euro from 2010 lows.   This comes after we recently saw the 61% mark (roughly) on 2nd Feb at 1.3898 Euros to a USA Dollar.

On my long term weekly drawn chart I have this recent action as also fitting into a positive trend for the Eurodollar going back to 2008 and 2009 lows.   This chart is one I drew last year, data is current of course

USDX Friday highs bring it into trend resistance on the daily chart

Highs on friday matches previous trend.  UUP lows also near support

Cadogan Petroleum's long term view matches pullback

Spread on CAD just dropped to 1.5% 

 Volume today has been fairly highly, action is negative and in line with yesterday.  The high recently of 35p fits long term to previous failed support in Dec 2008.

   For whatever reasons these bumps in the road are not forgotten on the way back up.

30p is the 5 day average price.  Tuesdays lows would make a nice target to buy

Cadogan Petroleum breaks out on higher volume

USA Dollar index up from support

Soloman bad faith ?

I see Soloman is doing badly.   No big deal, gold has come down all that is normal but I cant remember why I even liked it now.    Doesnt pay to have no faith in these things

Anyhow the graph for SOLG shows its very close to a test of its bigger rise.   Either we retain this price roughly or the story was fake, it didnt deserve to rise and the price falls further.  

The basis for this is hard to explain but natural order maintains it should hold at least some of its gains. 28.19 is a 61% retracement of its boom to 60 from 5p

Not sure why its fallen back so much, need to read why it could rise also.  Just trusting a percentage possibility would be pretty risky / likely to fail

Bubbles of the 21st Century vs Gold

Silver downtrend continues in March contract

Chart for March silver contract.    Uptrend failed, in fact we have a downtrend in progress now.
  Tuesday low was a support level which lead to a shortlived bounce upto Nov highs then back down.

Price could go sideways for a week before breaking either way but bias is downwards for the moment

Dollar weak but lows show support

Dollar failed to keep to its trend lows but holds support from Oct and Nov

Silver long term trend points to $27 to 25 Dollars

The negative but still very bullish estimate for SLV would now be 25.
  


The 2007 to 2008 older trend also coincides with the recovery of 2009 and this trend also matches these two prices


SLV volume here doesnt really kick in till 19 but I guess it would be surprising to see that much of a drop
Of the two I still expect silver to be more volatile then Gold at some point though many believe silver will not fall greatly again like 2008 it is still greatly dependant on industrial flows with stockpiling by both business and now also private individuals for investment purposes 


At 27 silver prices now approach a trend of rises existing during 2007 and most of 2008 before Lehmans popped its clogs and US Federal Reserve doubled the worlds reserve currency monetary base.
With QE2 underway and the Dollar index in a steady decline for some time it will be interesting to see how well silver adjusts to a lowering currency worth and also questioning of China and other world economies 

Max Petroleum chart shows potential to build on its gains

I drew a chart on Max Petroleum last year. Its done well since, Dec low price was the 200 Daily Moving average and it appears to have good volume support at 20 or above

Kazakhstan is a good market I think if they can find what they looking for

USA Dollar Index Daily View